Sudan’s Ongoing Crisis: Exploring the Current Conflict and Future Implications

Written by Gbemi Adeyemi

As the African proverb goes, “When two elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.” This may be the simplest explanation for Sudan’s current crisis, where there is a clash between Sudan’s military and the country’s main paramilitary force.

A populous country located in the northeast of Africa, it is the third largest country within the continent. Sudan is host to a wealth of resources and known for their exports of gold and sesame seed. With a vibrant young workforce, Sudan has great agricultural opportunities for its 42.8 million population. While being a beautifully diverse land with a rich culture, El Geneina, the capital of West Darfur state, has experienced frequent conflict since the 2019 protest during the transition to democracy, which toppled the former authoritarian leader Omar al-Bashir.

Although conflict has been a recurring theme in Darfur, fears and accusations of a new civil war are ever present. Recent crisis has citizens arming themselves while thousands of foreigners including students, diplomats, and aid workers are stranded. As of late May, the UK, US and France are among those closing embassies and racing still to evacuate their nationals. There are conflicting numbers on the dead or injured, yet as of 17 June, the Sudanese Health Ministry stated that more than 3,000 people had been killed and 6,000 others had been injured.

So, you may be wondering “what’s going on in Sudan!?”

Well, when conflict arises, it is often complex and multidimensional. There are many contributing factors such as: the subject of the conflict, the manner in which the parties perceive the conflict, and the behaviour of the parties toward the conflict. To gain a vivid understanding of the current Sudanese conflict, there are different layers and many years of tension and violence that has led up to this recent escalation.

Two Formidable Security Forces Set Against Each Other

On April the 15^th, the crisis started after years of tension. This moment was a clash between Sudan’s military and the country’s main paramilitary force known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This clash can be easily explained as a power struggle between the two main factions of the military regime. The Sudanese armed forces are broadly loyal to General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the country’s de facto ruler, while the RSF, a collection of militias, follow the former warlord General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti. It comes two years after they jointly and successfully carried out a military coup, disrupting a transition to democracy that had begun after protesters in 2019 helped force the dismissal of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir. The two fractions worked together and shared control of the government, but had disagreements over a planned transition to civilian rule.

It is critical to note that the roots of this power struggle were laid many years before the overthrow of Al-Bashir in 2019 when he created a formidable security force alongside the pre-existing army. It was in 2003 that al-Bashir founded the Janjaweed, a powerful force which quickly became the RSF. He achieved this by recruiting a group of Arab nomads to battle mostly non-Arab rebellious groups that fought against the state due to political and economic marginalisation. While it is unclear the number of fatalities of this 2003 crisis, it is often estimated that about 300,000 people lost their lives as a result of the conflict. When the 2019 effort to transition to a democratic civilian-led government faltered after the fall of Bashir, an eventual conflict appeared inevitable.

The scar the 2003 crisis left on Sudan is evident in today’s current conflict. The RSF is currently in a violent battle for power with its former ally, the Sudanese army, snowballing in a security vacuum that armed tribes are now exploiting. This recent escalation has left residents and foreign observers anxious as some worry this current conflict may turn into targeted ethnic violence, specifically in El-Geneina which has already been the location of fighting between Arab and non-Arab tribes within the past year.

Citizen Voices and Demand in the Crisis

Since the 2019 protests, a significant cause of tension has been citizens voicing their demand for oversight of the military and the integration of the RSF into the regular armed forces. Moreover, they have been calling for the transfer of profitable military holdings in sectors such as agriculture, trade, and other industries. This demand, coupled with the pursuit of justice for the killings of pro-democracy protesters in 2019 and the allegations of war crimes committed by the military and its allies in Darfur since 2003, further exacerbates the ongoing crisis.

Consequently, the United Nations has estimated that around 800,000 people could be compelled to flee Sudan. Ransacking, burning, or both, have been carried out on central banks, central markets, hospitals, and warehouses owned by foreign humanitarian organisations. The World Health Organization has sent out a warning that many may die due to disease outbreaks and a lack of essential services. Medical supplies are running critically low in areas affected by violence, including the capital Khartoum, as well as West and Central Darfur.

The Future of Sudan: What Lies Ahead?

Sudan is at a pivotal moment. As evidenced by past nationwide conflicts in the country, the breakdown of safety and the displacement of people could have significant transregional impacts extending beyond immediate neighbouring states. This current crisis presents two main possibilities. The first possibility is that the victor is likely to become Sudan’s next president, while the second possibility is a protracted civil war. In the case of a civil war, there is a high risk that it may turn into a regional conflict.

Whilst unusual in this situation, a select number of neighbouring states have already aligned themselves with either of the two generals. Egypt and Saudi Arabia have confirmed their support for Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while the United Arab Emirates and General Haftar of Libya support the RSF. To prevent the situation escalating into greater conflict, a united front of regional and Western states is required, while other international actors consider their alignment.

Moreso, the multilateral capacity to effectively address Sudan’s urgent crisis is decreasing. Existing global attention and resources are already being directed towards other pressing matters such as the conflict in Ukraine, the earthquake recovery efforts in Turkey, and flood relief in Pakistan. These issues receive significant focus and support from the United Nations, various non-governmental organisations, and governments worldwide.

However, this latest form of civil conflict in Sudan demands global attention in the areas of peacekeeping, security, conflict resolution, and immediate humanitarian assistance for the people of Sudan. It is them who bear the brunt of the crisis and are left in desperate need of support. If left unaddressed, the humanitarian and security crisis in Sudan has the potential to extend well beyond the Middle East and North Africa, spreading its effects to other regions.

Sources

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14094995